DAMASCUS – The wheat fields outside Seqalbia, near the Syrian city of Hama, should be golden and heavy with grain.

Instead, Maher Haddad's 40 dunums (10 acres) are dry and empty, barely yielding a third of their usual harvest.

"This year was disastrous due to drought," said the 46-year-old farmer, reflecting on the land that cost him more to sow than it gave back.

His fields delivered only 190kg (418 lbs) of wheat per dunum – far below the 400-500kg he relies on in a normal year.

"We haven't recovered what we spent on agriculture; we've lost money. I can't finance next year and I can't cover the cost of food and drink," Haddad told the BBC.

With two teenage daughters to feed, he is now borrowing money from relatives to survive.

Haddad's struggle is echoed across Syria, where the worst drought in 36 years has slashed wheat harvests by 40% and is pushing a country – where nearly 90% of the population already lives in poverty – to the brink of a wider food crisis.

A report from the United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) estimates Syria will face a wheat shortfall of 2.73m tonnes this year, the equivalent of annual dietary needs for 16.25 million people.

Without more food aid or the ability to import wheat, Syria's hunger crisis is set to worsen dramatically, warned Piro Tomaso Perri, FAO's senior programme officer for Syria.

"Food insecurity could reach unprecedented levels by late 2025 into mid-2026," he said, noting that more than 14 million Syrians – six in 10 people – are already struggling to eat enough. Of those, 9.1 million face acute hunger, including 1.3 million in severe conditions, while 5.5 million risk sliding into crisis without urgent intervention.

The same report showed rainfall has dropped by nearly 70%, crippling 75% of Syria's rain-fed farmland.

"This is the difference between families being able to stay in their communities or being forced to migrate," Mr Perri said. "For urban households, it means rising bread prices. For rural families, it means the collapse of their livelihoods."

Farming families are already selling livestock to supplement lost incomes from wheat, reducing their number of daily meals, and there has been a rise in malnutrition rates among children and pregnant women.

Yet, the implications of the drought stretch far beyond the thousands of kilometres of barren farmlands.

Wheat is a staple crop in Syria. It is the main ingredient for bread and pasta – two food staples that should be low cost foods to families. So with the lack of wheat supply, the cost goes up.

For 39-year-old widow Sanaa Mahamid, affording bread has become a massive struggle.

With six children between the ages of nine and 20, she relies on the wages of two sons, but their salaries are not enough to cover the family's basic expenses.

"Sometimes we borrow money just to buy bread," she said.

Last year, a bag of bread cost Sanna 500 Syrian pounds ($4.1; £3; €3.5), but now it is 4,500 Syrian pounds. To feed her family, Sanaa needs two bags a day – an expense of 9,000 pounds, before accounting for any other food.

"This is too much. This is just bread, and we still need other things," she said. "If the price of bread rises again, this will be a big problem. The most important thing is bread."

The crisis is a challenge for interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa, as his administration works to rebuild Syria in the aftermath of the 14-year conflict and the removal of former leader Bashar al-Assad in December 2024.

International agencies, like the UN World Food Programme (WFP), are rushing to step in alongside the government to provide bread subsidies for those at risk of facing severe food insecurity.

But aid officials warn that subsidies are only a temporary fix, and that the long-term stability of Syria depends on whether farmers can stay on their land and sustain production.

"We're trying to keep people in the farming game," Marianne Ward, the WFP's country director for Syria, said. She has worked to give $8m (£6m; €6.9m) in direct payments to small farmers – about 150,000 people – who lost all of their crops.

"If you're not going to make money, you're going to leave the land. And then you're not going to have people who are going to be working in the agriculture sector which is essential for the economy," she said

But after more than a decade of war, Syria's agricultural sector was already battered by economic collapse, destroyed irrigation systems, and mined fields.

Dr Ali Aloush, the agriculture director for the Deir al-Zour region, Syria's breadbasket, said wheat fields needed to be irrigated four to six times per season, but that due to lack of rain, most farmers could not keep up.

"The farmer's primary concern is first securing water and water requires fuel. The fuel price skyrocketed. It reached to 11,000 to 12,000 Syrian pounds per litre," Dr Aloush said.

The high price of fuel and power cuts meant water pumps were out of reach, and many growers were already burdened with debt.

Dr Aloush says a priority for his department and the transitional government in Damascus is putting money into irrigation projects – like solar powered drips – that will make water more accessible to farmers.

But projects like that take time and money – luxuries wheat farmers do not currently have.

So for millions of Syrians across the country, there is only one thing to do in the coming months: pray for rain. – BBC

Analysts fear that, if successfully implemented, the embargo announced by JNIM on Kayes and Nioro-du-Sahel could paralyse western Mali.

What does the army say?

The Malian army initially downplayed the blockade, with spokesman Col Souleymane Dembélé dismissing reports of a siege as an "information war orchestrated by foreign media".

Footage circulating on social media of besieged vehicles on the Dakar-Bamako corridor had been taken out of context, he insisted. ''The video of the bus being set on fire dates from April and has no connection with the so-called blockade."

According to the army spokesman, "no systemic interruption of transport has been observed" in western Mali and the real challenge facing people in the Kayes region is "the rainy season and not the actions of terrorist groups".

X A bus marked 'Diarra Transport' with flames coming out of itX

Mali's military says social media videos of buses on fire are old

Col Dembélé also characterised JNIM's increased activity as "the last gasps of an enemy at bay and in retreat". It is a refrain often used by Malian officials since the junta seized power five years ago.

Last week, the army said it had conducted an airstrike on a JNIM camp in Mousafa, in Kayes, killing "several dozen militants" and destroying a site allegedly used for logistics and planning.

Reinforcements were sent to Kayes and Nioro-du-Sahel, it said, with the military announcing "hunting and destruction operations" along major roads and a "large-scale offensive" on the Diéma-Nioro corridor.

State media reported that hostages were freed during the operations, but did not say how many.

Such efforts by the army do not appear to have lessened locals' fears nor the disruption to their lives. Residents report that militant checkpoints remain in place, while transport companies have suspended operations and lorry drivers continue to face intimidation.

Why is this part of Mali so important?

Kayes is said to account for approximately 80% of the country's gold production, and is also deemed Mali's "gateway to Senegal". It is a logistics hub where international trade routes converge.

Mali is a landlocked country heavily dependent on neighbouring ports for fuel, food and manufactured goods, so control of Kayes is essential.

The blockade not only disrupts local life, but directly threatens Bamako's economic stability.

"The Kayes region has become a major strategic target for JNIM, which considers it a vital space," says the Dakar-based Timbuktu Institute.

"The jihadists intend to disrupt the country's supplies, to destabilise, or even suffocate the Malian economy, isolate the capital Bamako and increase economic pressure on the Malian transitional regime," it says.

The blockade also signals the geographic expansion of JNIM's insurgency.

Traditionally, the group's operations have been concentrated in northern and central Mali – in Mopti, Segou and Timbuktu. However, JNIM has in recent years made significant inroads into southern Mali, including Sikasso and Koulikoro regions.

By turning its attention to Kayes, the group is not only widening its footprint but threatening to encircle Bamako.

What else is at stake?

Since 2012, Mali has been in the grip of a profound security crisis fuelled by violence from groups affiliated with al-Qaeda and the Islamic State (IS) organisation, as well as other armed militia.

Local and international media warn that JNIM's recent isolation of parts of southern Mali could pave the way for similar incursions into neighbouring coastal countries.

The crisis underscores the limits of Mali's reliance on military force, supported by Russian Africa Corps mercenaries, as the Wagner Group is now known, whose role in operations is not officially acknowledged.

By disrupting trade routes from Senegal and Mauritania, JNIM has shown it can project influence westward, raising fears of an expansion into those countries.

The Union of Senegalese Truckers (URS) blamed militants and described the recent abductions of lorry drivers as a threat to regional trade.

Mali is Senegal's main African trade partner, accounting for more than $1.4bn (£1bn) in exports last year. The Bamako-Kayes route carries fuel, cement, foodstuffs and manufactured goods critical to both economies.

There is a risk that what began as a tactical disruption may evolve into a prolonged siege, eroding confidence in Malian state institutions and exposing its fragility.

JNIM's "choice to target buses and tankers is not insignificant – it aims to strike at the heart of Mali's social and economic mobility", Bamada.net reported last week.

More than a local flare-up, the siege of Kayes is a warning sign that the jihadist insurgency in Mali has entered a new phase with the repercussions of economic sabotage reaching well beyond Mali's borders.