INDIA’S parliamentary elections are still two years away and the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party is confident of a second term. There is nobody in the opposition ranks to rival Prime Minister Narendra Modi either in his popularity or charisma. Moreover, the opposition is weak and divided. That there is no credible alternative to the prime minister in 2019 also works to the advantage of Modi and his party.
But for the first time since he came to power with a two-third majority in 2014, the prime minister and his party are showing signs of nervousness. His attack on those “spreading pessimism” was prickly, and of a piece with a leader who has lost his sureness of touch. The reason is the state of the economy and allegations of corruption against the son of BJP chief Amit Shah who along with Modi enjoys unchallenged supremacy in the party.
India’s growth has fallen to a dismal 5.7 percent this quarter, the slowest annual rate since 2014 for an economy that was humming at around 7 percent last year. Even Bibek Debroy, the chairman of the recently reconstituted Prime Minister’s Economic Advisory Council (PMEAC), did acknowledge the slowdown in the economy after the first meeting of the council on Wednesday. Demonetization and a new national sales tax introduced with the laudable aims of rooting out black money and creating a national single market have miserably failed in their objectives and the criticism comes from senior BJP leaders.
Arun Shourie, a prominent member of a previous BJP Cabinet called the demonetization the largest money-laundering scheme and termed it an idiotic jolt to the economy. He called the Goods and Services Tax (GST) “an important reform but poorly implemented.”
Shourie’s criticism came days after Yashwant Sinha, a former BJP finance minister, slammed the government for its mismanagement of the economy.
Unfortunately, those “spreading pessimism” also include Mohan Bhagwat, the chief of Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), the ideological mentor of the BJP. In his “state of the union” address on Hindu festival Dussehra, Bhagwat expressed concern over jobs, prices, traders and economic distress. This is very unusual when the BJP is in power.
Unusual too was Modi’s reaction. In a lengthy speech last week, he said some people were misrepresenting the slowdown of one quarter (5.7 percent growth for the last quarter) to claim an economic failure. He repeatedly compared his three years in power to the Congress party’s last two, which were so bad that it was reduced to 44 in the Parliament. The irony of Modi using the performance of a discredited administration, which was voted out, as his benchmark was lost on no one. Following the allegations against Jay Shah, son of the BJP chief, people are asking whether Modi is following the example of the previous Congress government in the matter of fighting corruption too.
Even Modi’s supporters are recalling his assertion in the 2014 parliamentary election campaign that he would neither indulge in corruption nor allow anyone to be corrupt. Now that someone close to him is under a cloud, not only is he silent but allows his Cabinet colleagues to come to the rescue of the younger Shah. Where is the knight in shining armor, the people ask.
This is not to argue that tectonic plates of Indian politics are shifting. Not yet. But the feeling is growing that Modi is not invincible and not merely among the opposition. There are three possibilities. One, Modi becomes humble and becomes more open and responsive to the people’s needs. Second, an embattled Modi turns to crude populism to keep his flock together. Third, a reinvigorated Congress under the leadership of Rahul Gandhi manages to unite the opposition parties to mount a credible challenge to the BJP in 2019. Given the unraveling of India’s social fabric after Modi came to power, nobody can view the second possibility except with extreme dread.
