Whatever the outside world thought about their referendum, there was never much doubt that Iraqi Kurds would vote for independence. Indeed, the very fact that there was such widespread international opposition to the move appears to have reinforced the determination to have a vote, even by those who were dubious about the prospects of an independent Kurdish state.
Although the Kurds of Iraq have enjoyed considerable autonomy since the fall of Saddam Hussein, to say nothing of an acknowledged position within Iraq’s constitution, Kurdistan Regional President Masoud Barzani has insisted that his people have the right to choose their destiny. He has also accused the international community of double standards, claiming that while the likes of the Americans advocate democracy, they have condemned the Kurdish vote.
Nevertheless, there are very good reasons to suppose that this referendum is going to cause more problems than it solves. Although Barzani and his people claim this was a unique moment that had to be seized, it seems very likely that many of those who have been celebrating with such enthusiasm will come to rue the day.
Kurdistan as an independent nation has a very uncertain future because the decision was unilateral. Nothing has been agreed with Iraq, the country from which it is seeking to break away. And perhaps more importantly, nothing has been agreed with Turkey, which is resolutely opposed to the existence of any independent Kurdish state. Besides the six million Iraqi Kurds there are some 22 million other Kurds spread over western Iran, eastern Turkey and northeastern Syria. The main revenue sources for Iraq’s autonomous Kurds have been subventions from Baghdad and income from the sale of oil piped through Turkey.
Even if the Turks did not turn off this economic lifeline as they have threatened, the Iraqi government has vowed to isolate the would-be new country, cutting all transport links, communications and, of course, any further payments. The Kurdish Peshmerga fighters may be formidable but they have suffered defeats at the hands of Daesh (the self-proclaimed IS) and they have been complaining about unpaid salaries and poor weapons and equipment.
Reality is likely to hit home rapidly as the flag-waving celebrations are succeeded by the realization that an independent Kurdistan is isolated and largely friendless, despite the flattering attention of the foreign media who flocked to Erbil to cover the referendum. Thus far, ethnic Arabs who live in the region have been fearful but quiet. A clear flashpoint is the city of Kirkuk that has a large Arab population. Few of this community bothered to vote in the referendum, certain that the outcome was a foregone conclusion. It is perhaps significant that the Kurdish leadership made virtually no attempt to reach out to the Arab population to assure them that they still had a future in the would-be new state.
Simply relying on a triumphant, deeply chauvinistic message was surely a critical error. And there have to be questions about the Barzani leadership. Rumblings of discontent have been growing at corruption that has enriched the few at the expense of the many. For now Barzani may think the referendum triumph has given his government a new lease of life. The reality, however, is that it has opened up a very dangerous can of worms not just for the Kurds of Iraq, but for the whole region.
