Saudi Gazette report
RIYADH — The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised its forecast for Saudi Arabia's economic growth in 2026 for the third year in a row.

The IMF projected Saudi Arabia's economy to grow by 4.5 percent this year in its January report, released on Monday, up from a previous forecast of 4 percent in its October 2025 forecast.

The IMF also raised its 2025 growth forecast for Saudi Arabia to 4.3 percent, compared to 4 percent in its October forecast. The Fund indicated that Saudi Arabia's economy is expected to grow by 3.6 percent next year, compared to 3.2 percent in its October forecast.

It is noteworthy that the IMF also raised its global growth forecast for 2026 to 3.3 percent, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from its previous October estimate. The IMF's growth forecast for Saudi Arabia this year is close to the Saudi Ministry of Finance's projections of 4.6 percent, 3.7 percent in 2027, and 4.5 percent in 2028. This reflects the realism of the ministry's projections, which are also close to those of international institutions and credit rating agencies.

The IMF bases its projections for Saudi Arabia's economic growth on the continued momentum of the Kingdom's non-oil economy and the oil sector's return to stronger growth rates following the easing of oil production restrictions under the OPEC+ agreement.

According to the World Bank's latest report, the Saudi economy is projected to grow by 4.3 percent this year and 4.4 percent in 2027. The World Bank based its revised projections on a faster-than-expected increase in oil production in early 2025, while growth in non-oil activities remains robust.

Fitch Ratings expects the Saudi economy to grow by 4.8 percent in 2026, with the deficit projected to shrink to 3.6 percent of GDP by year's end. This growth is attributed to the continued strengthening of non-oil revenues, driven by robust economic activity and improved revenue efficiency.