ABUJA — The Nigerian government says Boko Haram and Islamic State in West Africa Province (Iswap) are responsible for a recent surge in mass abductions across north-western and central Nigeria, but analysts dispute the claim, arguing that the attacks were carried out by local criminal gangs known as “bandits.”

This marks the first time the government has publicly attributed the kidnappings to jihadist groups, though it offered no evidence to support the assessment.

Kidnapping for ransom has become widespread in recent years, involving a mix of armed gangs, jihadist factions, and separatist groups. While ransoms remain illegal, officials have long been accused of covertly paying them.

Three mass abductions have taken place in the past two weeks:

• 17 November — Kebbi state: 25 people abducted at Government Girls Comprehensive Secondary School in Maga; all later freed
• 18 November — Kwara state: 38 abducted from Christ Apostolic Church in Eruku; all released
• 21 November — Niger state: more than 250 children and 12 staff reportedly kidnapped at St Mary’s Catholic School, though officials dispute the figures

Presidential spokesman Sunday Dare declined to say whether ransoms were paid for recent releases, describing the response only as “kinetic, non-kinetic, [and] negotiations.”

He said “abundant data” showed that both Iswap and remnants of Boko Haram were behind the attacks. “They are the ones involved in this process,” he told the BBC.

But several security analysts reject that conclusion. Bulama Bukarti, an expert on extremist groups, said there was no evidence that Boko Haram or Iswap maintain operational cells in the north-west.

“The recent mass kidnappings were carried out by bandits, not Boko Haram or Iswap,” he said.

Bandits—loosely organized local armed groups, often traveling by motorbike—operate mainly in the north-west, far from Boko Haram’s and Iswap’s bases in the north-east.

Conflict-monitoring organization Acled told the BBC that all three recent mass kidnappings were carried out by Fulani militia groups commonly referred to as bandits. It said the Niger state school abduction “appears to have been partly carried out to spite the government” and pursue political goals, while the church attack in Kwara state was connected to attempts to displace communities for illegal mining activities.

The surge in kidnappings has intensified scrutiny of Nigeria’s security crisis, especially after US President Donald Trump warned he would send American troops if attacks on Christians continued. Nigerian officials and analysts say the violence affects people of all faiths and that claims Christians are being specifically targeted are unfounded.

In the north-east, where Boko Haram and Iswap remain active, 13 teenage girls were abducted in Borno state shortly after the mass kidnappings in the north-west, in a separate incident widely attributed to jihadist groups.

President Bola Tinubu has pledged to rescue all remaining abductees but offered no timeline. — BBC