For decades, a single phrase has echoed through the Arab world in the wake of political and military missteps: “If I had known, I would never have done it.” Uttered with a mix of regret and resignation, these words have become a refrain for lost opportunities, squandered lives, and shattered communities. Yet they offer no solace to the displaced, no comfort to the bereaved, and no blueprint for rebuilding what has been destroyed.

The past six decades bear witness to a string of miscalculations—wars launched on a whim, confrontations pursued without regard for reality.
The toll has been relentless: eroded territories, compromised principles, and once-inviolable red lines now open to negotiation.
The true tragedy lies in the human cost—ordinary citizens left to bear the brunt, while the architects of these failures often walk away unscathed, sometimes even lionized.

The Arab world’s malaise stems not from a lack of politicians, but from a dearth of genuine leadership.
A true leader prioritizes the welfare of their people, balancing ambition with a clear-eyed assessment of their nation’s capabilities, its constraints, and the global landscape.
They know when to act, when to pause, and when to wait for a more opportune moment.
Too often, however, the region has been led into unwinnable battles by figures blinded by ideology—whether from Islamist factions or the remnants of outdated leftist movements—who fail to grasp the realities of global power dynamics.

In international politics, the equation is stark: the weaker party cannot dictate terms to the stronger without the means to back it up. Ignoring this truth invites disaster. Yet Arab political discourse remains dominated by rhetoric over strategy, symbolic gestures over substance.
While adversaries plot with precision and patience, too many Arab leaders treat geopolitics as a stage for grandstanding—leaving their people to pay the price: endless destruction, missed opportunities, and resources diverted from advancing legitimate causes through pragmatic means.

The path forward is not mysterious. Success lies not in slogans or reckless gambits, but in building resilience, fostering stability, and crafting strategies grounded in reality. Until the Arab world embraces this, it risks being trapped in a cycle of regret, forever haunted by the same mournful refrain: “If only I had known.”
— Sultan Alsaad is a Saudi writer and journalist who has contributed to numerous Arab newspapers.