Saudi Gazette report

RIYADH — Saudi Arabia's economy is expected to grow by 3 percent in 2025, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said in its April report, revising down its previous 3.3 percent estimate.

In its World Economic Outlook, the IMF also reduced the projection for growth in 2026 by 0.4 percentage point from 4.1 percent to 3.7 percent.

Saudi Arabia’s real GDP is expected to grow by 3 percent in 2025, with further acceleration to 3.7 percent in 2026, the report pointed out.

The IMF also anticipated a global growth slowdown amid shifts in policies and heightened uncertainty, with global inflation seen receding. It, however, upgraded its projections for some countries.

The swift escalation of trade tensions and high levels of policy uncertainty are poised to hinder growth. The shift in policies may lead to sudden tightening of global financial conditions and capital outflows, which could weigh on emerging markets in specific, according to the report.

Meanwhile, the growth projection for the broader Middle East and Central Asia region was lowered to 3 percent this year versus a 3.6 percent estimate earlier. "Compared with that in January, the projection is revised downward, reflecting a more gradual resumption of oil production, persistent spillovers from conflicts, and slower-than-expected progress on structural reforms," the report said.

Saudi Arabia, the world’s top oil exporter and a G20 economy, had been expected to see a sharp growth rebound in 2025 on the back of higher crude output, with an October Reuters poll forecasting expansion of 4.4 percent. But market volatility, weaker prices, and mounting global risks now threaten to weigh on the recovery, even as the Kingdom pushes to diversify its economy beyond oil.