JOHANNESBURG — A decade ago, there were plenty of doomsday forecasts asserting the AIDS pandemic would sharply curtail African economic growth with a particular focus on its impact on food security.

But a series of bumper maize harvests in two of the countries worst-hit by the disease, Zambia and Malawi, suggest the region’s economies have not followed this script, thanks in part to treatment programmes and farm subsidies.

The predicted scenarios generally went like this: subsistence farming would be devastated because working-age peasants would sicken or die, leaving the back-breaking labour in the fields to the young and the old, with yields suffering.

AIDS was seen as potentially a greater economic shock to Africa than the bubonic plague was to Europe centuries ago as the latter killed far more of the very young and the very old than it did those in the prime of their lives.

The examples of Malawi and Zambia may force a rethink of how the pandemic is playing out in African economies and suggests the continent is winning key battles against the disease.

A few years ago Malawi was gripped by food shortages and rural residents risked crocodile attack to scour rivers for plants that offered scant nutrition but prevented starvation. But over the past several years, Malawi and Zambia have been reaping bumper harvests, boosting economic growth in two countries where small-scale farming still accounts for a big chunk of gross domestic product.

Zambia’s maize production in the 2010/2011 season was a record of over 3 million tonnes, up from the 2.8 million tonnes produced in the 2009/2010 season. This is over double what it was growing a few years ago, according to government data.

Malawi has also had record crops and its maize output has also more than doubled, from 1.7 million tonnes in 2003/04 to 3.8 million last year - an astonishing turn-around.

Both countries are expected to produce less this season than last because of weather-related factors but should still have more than enough to feed themselves.

This state of affairs has been mostly attributed to subsidy programmes in both countries that provide seed and fertiliser to hundreds of thousands of peasant farmers.

According to the experts, the consequences for African economies would not stop at rural fields. Consumer demand was seen depressed as workers died and families deprived of breadwinners struggled to cope.

he Economist last year calculated that from 2001-2010, 6 of the world’s 10 fastest growing economies were in Africa - the region which has a whole has the biggest AIDS case load. Fast-growing African economies and the harvests in Zambia and Malawi may have been even bigger were it not for burdens related to AIDS.

AIDS is clearly an on-going human and social tragedy in Africa. But it does seem that the risks to economic growth and food security have not been as great as many had feared. — Reuters