Opinion

2020!

December 16, 2019
2020!

Hussein Shobokshi

As 2019 draws to a close, it is time to look forward to some of the important events to be expected in 2020.

The new year may witness an historic trade agreement between China and the United States of America. China has been affected by the financial sanctions imposed on its goods, and the Trump administration desires an important achievement before November’s presidential election.

A formal and final exit of the United Kingdom from the European Union is also expected, and this will have significant and important domestic consequences and may increase the appetite of Scotland to leave the UK, resulting in the gradual transformation of Great Britain to Lesser England. Europe may experience greater tension with the Trump administration, along with greater exploitation of this circumstance by Russia and, to a lesser extent, China.

The beginning of the year in the US will witness a great preoccupation of the law and the media with the impeachment of President Donald Trump by the US House of Representatives, as Congress calls for respect for the sanctity of the government’s separation of powers and for not allowing the American president to exceed his authorized power. Next year may see the most ferocious and costly US presidential election in history due to unprecedented political polarization.

The Far East will see stagnation in economic mobility, especially in China and India, whose economic performance has slowed negatively and markedly. Africa will be the preferred location for international investment which will result in an increase in agricultural production rates and an improvement in health, education and democracy standards.

Israel will remain in a state of polarization and political division, especially after the political death of the idea of ​​the deal of the century and the return of talk about the two-state solution in Washington.

Two important economic events in the Middle East will occur as Saudi Arabia hosts the G20 Summit and the UAE hosts Expo. These two events will create valuable economic opportunities.

Iran, the biggest loser in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen, will seek a "deal" with the Gulf states to stop the political and economic deterioration that it is experiencing. Egypt will see continued improvement in its economic climate, record rates in tourism revenues, a decrease in unemployment, a change in interest rates and the exchange rate of the dollar. Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and other countries of the region will be talking about political succession.

The most important financial characteristic of 2020 is that some banking experts say that it will be a year of economic recession. The first three months of the new year will either confirm or deny this prediction.


December 16, 2019
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