Opinion

Trump and Modi

September 25, 2019

As theater it was outstanding. As politics, it was a great deal more doubtful. Some 50,000 Texans crammed into a Houston stadium as President Donald Trump paraded with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi for an event billed as “Howdy Modi!”. Trump and his guest were given a rousing welcome.

Both leaders laid on the compliments to each other with a trowel. Trump said how thrilled he was to be in Texas with one of America’s “greatest, most devoted and most loyal friends”. Modi reciprocated saying of Trump: “From CEO to commander-in-chief, from boardrooms to the Oval Office, from studios to the global stage... he has left a lasting impact everywhere”.

Pundits commented that this mutual backslapping benefited both leaders. Trump wants to win the Indian vote in next year’s election and Modi was looking for a publicity triumph following the generally bad international press he has received for his political seizure of autonomous Indian-occupied Kashmir and the harsh security clampdown that followed it.

Less pointed up were the factors that both men share. Modi’s move on Indian administered Kashmir was no more legal under international law that Trump’s endorsement of Netanyahu’s plans to annex a third of the occupied West Bank. Modi clearly shares with the now politically beleaguered Israeli leader the belief that creating “facts on the ground” is more important that abiding by international norms of justice and decency.

Moreover, both Trump and Modi have played the nationalist card. There may be little to choose between a racist American and a fanatical member of the Bharatiya Janata Party who follows in the steps of Mahatma Gandhi in believing that India should be a Hindu state, with no role for its substantial Muslim minority and other religions.

From Trump’s point of view, closer relations with India could help him in his increasingly bitter trade war with China. However, India’s considerable economic potential continues to be stymied by excessive bureaucracy, inefficiency and corruption, along with Modi’s interference in the activities of its supposedly independent central bank, the Reserve Bank of India. India does not yet play anything like the pivotal global economic role of Beijing.

This week Trump is due to meet Pakistan’s Prime Minister Imran Khan, who will almost certainly seek, at the very least, for Washington to play some mediating role in his country’s enduring standoff with India over Kashmir. Unfortunately, by making such a major fuss of Modi in Houston, Khan’s expectation of any honest-brokering from Trump is likely to be very low. Yet, Islamabad will still be hoping that having won Modi’s favor, the US leader could try to use that to lever some sort of a reconsideration of India’s proscriptive actions over Kashmir.

This week’s UN General Assembly will once again be an opportunity for many world leaders to set out their government’s policies. But a great deal of real business is done in the corridors of the UN as aides get together to explore diplomatic openings to seemingly intractable international problems. The tragedies of Kashmir and Palestine were created at almost the same time and still endure. Trump has done nothing to solve and indeed has actually worsened the plight of Palestinians. But might he do better with Kashmir, part of which, he perhaps understands, is actually occupied by China?


September 25, 2019
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