The weekend was clearly a good one for the European Union. British Prime Minister Theresa May inked a Brexit deal which the European Commission is privately celebrating as humiliating for the UK. Moreover, at the EU summit where May put her name to an agreement that is highly controversial back home, Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte indicated that his government was prepared to back away from confrontation with Brussels over its planned high-spending budget.

Conte had had a meeting with EU Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker before he suggested that his administration would look again at the budget which envisaged a deficit of 2.4 percent of GDP. Brussels had ordered Rome to redo the budget because of Italy’s high debt burden, which is 132 percent of GDP. The Commission ruled that the Conte government’s planned expenditure to meet campaign promises of minimum incomes, a raised retirement age and heavy investment to boost the sluggish economy was unsustainable, since it would pile up even more state debt. The right-wing coalition of the populist League and anti-establishment Five Star party had vowed that this, their first budget, would “end poverty”. Brussels argued that precisely the opposite would be achieved since by boosting Italian state debt, the Conte coalition was condemning future generations of Italians to a crippling albatross of indebtedness.

The Italians appear to have given in to threats that Brussels would fine Italy 0.2 percent of its GDP. For the EU’s third largest economy, this could be crippling. The fact that Brussels was entirely happy to force financially insolvent Greece into further state borrowing which at 180 percent of GDP even their own economists admitted at the time was unsustainable was conveniently ignored by EU leaders.

But the smiles in Brussels this weekend may not last. In the UK, May’s proposed Brexit deal is highly unpopular and on present showing could be thrown out by parliament, not just because Brexiteers are furious but because those who wish to remain hope that a “no deal” option could be finessed into allowing Britain to remain in the EU.

In addition, the apparent change of heart by the Italian coalition, may be more tactical than real. Leading government members have been saying airily in Rome that a slight reduction in their deficit target would not affect their generous spending plans. It is, however, hard to see that this is in the least bit realistic. The Conte government must have realized that they were going to meet a granite wall of rejection and have planned accordingly. Leaving aside the wrecked Greek economy, Portugal has a greater deficit than Italy. Moreover, only 12 countries of the 19 Eurozone countries currently conform to the currency bloc’s rules in having a debt to GDP ratio of 60 percent or less. The French ratio for instance is over 96 percent. Even Germany is one percent over the target.

The Conte government could with justice argue that it is wrong for it to be singled out among the rule breakers. It is also possible that it has begun to play Brussels at its own game by appearing to agree to a deal, then backing out and tabling new proposals. And then there is the very important fact that Italians voted for this Euroskeptic government and may not forgive the EU if it frustrates its generous plans.