JEDDAH – Egypt’s macroeconomic recovery will continue apace in 2013, Business Monitor International said in its “Egypt Business Forecast Report Q1 2013”, although the growth will remain below pre-crisis levels.
Exports and fixed investments could perform strongly over the coming quarters, assuming that the tentative stabilization of the political environment seen since H212 holds, it said.
The report forecast that Egypt would sign an IMF stand-by arrangement at some point in early 2013, and believe that further foreign aid from the Gulf will also be necessary to avoid a full-blown balance of payments crisis.
The report adjusted the short-term bearish outlook on the Egyptian pound due to a larger-than-expected influx in foreign aid during the second half of 2012. Yet, the study suggested that further depreciation for the currency is on the cards, and forecast the unit to average EGP6.3000/US$ in 2013. — SG
